Still some storm energy rattling around in the NPAC this weekend…nothing super big…but enough energy that there will be some waves coming from this region.
Right now we have a mid-latitude storm holding between Hawaii and California that will be pushing toward the West Coast over the weekend…likely making some sort of landfall around the middle of next week, if the weather models aren’t twigging out again, which when we are in a transitional season like Spring…they usually do. Still the storm has formed…you can even check it out on the GOES satellite imagery right now.
This storm by itself is going to send a mix of NE swell back toward Hawaii, that sort of blends with a sloppy increase of tradeswell and some medium-period N swell over the weekend. The mix of those three swells will keep the east shores near surf advisory levels (which are much smaller than the North Shore levels) and some junky surf along the North Shores of most of the islands. The well exposed spots won’t be much bigger that slightly overhead for most of the weekend…but it does look like a little reinforcement from the N will push in on Monday that may have a little more juice to it.
Over by the west coast…this storm is forecast to mix with a broader cold-front moving out of the Gulf of Alaska….
You can see on the chart above…the colder low-pressure brings along some NW swell as it moves down through the West Coast. It looks sort of impressive on this chart but the swell angle is going to be very NW (300-330) which is steep even for a lot of the Northern and Central California spots that would have the best shot of picking it up.
Basically at this point I expect a big push of sloppy wind/storm swell moving into the Pacific on Tuesday of next week…peaking likely Wednesday and then dropping fast as the storm mix clears the area. Socal should get a little bit of this swell…but overall it will be much smaller, and likely cleaner, as you move south of Point Conception. Socal will actually be more exposed to the fetch set up by the smaller storm…which may send some energy in as early as Sunday/Monday…but would still peak more on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
Other than that system and some stuff stirring around in the long-range there isn’t a whole lot else out there…fortunately tropical season is just around the corner.
The South Pacific
The South Pacific has been pretty active lately…nothing super huge…just consistent. The storm track has been bubbling like a cauldron of goodness setting up storms all over the Southern Ocean. Basically you could pick any unshadowed South Pacific island…Fiji, Tahiti, Tonga, ect, ect, and it will be seeing a reasonably good sized swell (if not a big) S-SW swell heading its way over the next week or so.
Hawaii will be getting a few small pulses…but like I mentioned in the last forecast…a lot of the storm action has been taking place “past” New Zealand on the storm track, which unless the storm makes a marked northerly movement won’t really push that much energy toward the islands.
The exposed areas of the West Coast are well positioned to get a series of overlapping S-SW swells that have already started to arrive…and look like they are going to continue to show almost all the way through the end of April. Look for consistent chest-shoulder high+ surf for the best “summer” areas of both Southern and Northern California for the next week with some bigger sets showing as the various swells peak (one peaks this Saturday…and the next will peak next Tuesday April 20).
Mainland Mexico, Central, and South America will bear the brunt of this swell action and will see a steady stream of overhead surf for the next couple of weeks with some days of pretty large surf, going several feet+ overhead hitting this weekend and again early next week.
Long-range is still showing that strong system forming near New Zealand in about 5-days. It doesn’t look as intense as it did in the early part of the week…but it still has some heft to it…and the weather/wave models are actually showing the storm’s positioning getting better for the West Coast as the storm forecasted peak occurs further and further east in each forecast run.
At this point…for the West Coast…look for a smaller SW swell to pulse in around the 25th…and then the meat of this SW swell (200-220) to arrive around April 28-30th…it still has several days to develop but things are looking good!
That is it for now…next forecast will be on Tuesday have a great weekend!