Hawaii & West Coast Weekend Surf Forecast

There has been sooo much freaking swell this winter that I am pretty much running out of ways to say…”holy crap there is even more surf on the way”…so I will just skip the poetry this week and say it…holy crap there is even more surf on the way this weekend and more on tap for next week!

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Sure not every swell that has hit this winter has been perfect, but there has been so much energy sloshing around that if you spent some effort hunting down waves, you could have probably found something to ride almost every day. It has been a long time since we have had a winter this consistent…hopefully this season won’t be a one hit wonder.

OK enough worrying about next year…we still have plenty of waves on tap for this season…in fact it looks like we are going to get a couple solid looking W-NW swells hitting both the Islands and the West Coast over the next week…and the potential for more surf forming out the back.

npac_slp_fnmoc_stormy

Right now we have two systems developing…the first one has actually been pretty active over the last few days, setting up a WNW-NW swell for Hawaii as it intensified in the West Pacific, and now pushing a new round of W-NW swell into the West Coast that will hit and peak over the weekend.

msw_waves_weekend_west_coast

Unfortunately this storm is right on top of the W-NW swell for California and we can expect it to make landfall just a few hours before the swell arrives. Conditions look pretty nasty for Central/Southern California, lots of wind, rain, thunderstorms, and probably more mudslides (oh goody).

msw_out_the_back

The second system is just pulling together off to the North of Hawaii…and is expected to intensify pretty quickly over the next 2-3 days. As it does the storm is forecast to make a push towards Hawaii and then veer off toward the mainland…setting up a pretty solid N swell for Hawaii and a smaller, but cleaner, shot of WNW-NW swell for California. This one will start to arrive in Hawaii on March 1 and in California on March 2-3rd.

Further out in the long-range portion of the forecast I am still seeing a lot of storm activity…in fact the current forecast run is showing another two solid looking storms forming in the mid-upper latitudes of the NPAC by early next week that could have more swell on tap for the following weekend. These guys are a long ways off but as usual it is good to see the signs of these storms on the charts already.

spac_swell-period_fnmoc1

The South Pacific is also starting to get nice and active…nothing like it will be during our summer…but definitely seeing some better storm action than we have seen the last few months. I am expecting some small SW energy for most of this week and more on tap for the weekend…but what I am really interested in is some of the forecast charts showing a decent looking, and well positioned, storm that forms in about 2-3 days. If this lives up to forecasts we can expect more SSW-SW swell (190-220) heading our way for March 4-6th…nothing huge but good for chest-shoulder high+ surf at the standouts. Hopefully we will have some fun WNW in the water about the same time for some springtime combo fun.

Here are the regional details…

Hawaii
Another solid WNW-NW swell hit on Thursday with surf going several feet overhead at most of the good spots and sets going double-overhead+ at the standouts. This one will fade off slow over the weekend but will remain pretty healthy for both Saturday and Sunday. Further out it looks like another double-overhead+ WNW-NNW swell heading in late on March 1 but peaking Tuesday/Wednesday March 2-3. The storm is just putting the finishing touches on this next round of swell but it looks like it will be pretty healthy by the early part of next week. More storms are forecast to form out the back of the forecast…with the potential to push new WNW-NW swell to the islands later in the week and possibly into the following weekend.

Northern California
New WNW swell peaked on Wednesday and will be fading out on Friday. Conditions will fall apart pretty fast as another storm moves into the North/Central Coasts by Friday afternoon…spinning up S-SW winds 10-20+ knots and a bunch more rain. Look for a large, stormy W-WNW swell (260-300+) to move in on Saturday, peaking Saturday afternoon with easy double-triple overhead surf at the average spots and sets going 18-20’ on the face at some of the top breaks (deepwater spots have the potential to be bigger). Conditions on Saturday won’t be great…but not totally shredded either…look for NW winds 5-10 knots for the morning and then WNW winds 10-20+ knots on tap by the afternoon. These waves will fade out slowly on Sunday. Long-range charts are calling for a cleaner, more-organized, WNW-NW swell (280-300) moving in late on Monday (March 1) and peaking Tuesday/Wednesday (March 2-3). This one looks good for 15-18’ of deepwater swell at 16-18 second swell periods so it will end up being pretty sizeable too…likely double-triple overhead surf at the better winter spots and sets going 20-25’+30’ at deepwater breaks like Mav’s. Weather might be a little suspect for this one…but it looks like the new swell might arrive before things get too funky.

Southern California
Our newest round of W-NW swell that moved in on Thursday will hold into Friday with surf in the chest-head high range for most exposed spots and some overhead sets at the standout breaks. Conditions look ok for Friday morning but building S-SW winds are expected to arrive later in the evening. Saturday will start off with semi-stormy conditions and mostly leftover WNW energy, background SW swell, and some weak local S-SW windswell. By the afternoon a much bigger W-NW swell (275-300) starts to arrive, driving up wave heights by sundown, and then building overnight into Sunday. By Sunday we can expect surf to be in the shoulder-overhead+ range for the average spots and sets going several feet overhead to nearly double overhead at the top NW facing spots (Mostly Ventura, the South Bay, and San Diego). Conditions should be a little cleaner but we can still expect some leftover funk and light onshore winds to keep some sloppy texture going in most areas. These waves back down on Monday but by Tuesday afternoon a new WNW-NW swell (280-300) starts to arrive with some more organized long-period energy, and cleaner conditions. This one looks good for more overhead surf at the best breaks…so start practicing your “cough” so you can skip out and score some midweek swell.

Next forecast will be on Monday, check back in for the latest update!

Adam Wright
Surf Forecaster
www.socalsurf.com