While the West Coast is going to be getting a short break in both waves and weather for the next couple of days there is still plenty of new activity starting to brew up in the North Pacific…and I am even seeing a couple of tiny signs of life down in the South Pacific (not much though…think coma patient’s heartbeat going up one extra beat per minute when the hot nurse comes into the room).
For the next couple of days the West Coast is going to be working off a mix of fading WNW storm swell from the weekend and a minor shot of WNW swell that came from the same storm before it actually moved onshore…I know it sounds weird but it is a function of the timing of swell travel…sometimes the winds that generate the swell can outrun the waves it creates only to hit your location and grind up a bunch of windswell. I guess you could lump all of the energy into one big swell, but with the different swell-periods, swell directions, and arrival times it is usually better to break them into separate swell events. Ahh good times.
Back on topic…the West Coast will see wave heights dip down as we move through Tuesday and early Wednesday. Fortunately new storm activity is already forming on the other side of the Gulf of Alaska that is promising to send more WNW our way for the second half of the week.
Look for this new WNW’er to arrive in Northern and Central California quickly throughout Wednesday…eventually moving into Southern California Wednesday afternoon…and then peaking throughout the day on Thursday. At this point it looks like NorCal will see a pretty significant amount of surf from this one…lots more double-overhead to triple-overhead sizes at the good WNW spots and maybe a few bigger ones at the top spots.
Southern California will have a smaller version of the swell but the good NW facing spots throughout the region will have some overhead sets as the swell peaks. What is really nice about this swell is that even though Nor/Central Cal will see some rain from the front, winds throughout the state will be pretty manageable, even glassy as you move down into Socal…it will be good to get the swell without the weather for a few days.
Long-range charts are just as entertaining…nothing set in stone yet…but the forecast models are calling for a deep low-pressure to pull together North of Hawaii in about 5-7 days…as it does it will set up another fairly large lump of swell. Check out the Long-range pressure model…
The 952mb low that the charts are showing is no joke…it means that the storm could easily see something like 50-60 knots of wind near the core, with some stronger gusts mixing in as well. There are a couple of things that I don’t like about this storm though…first is its movement path…the charts are showing it track up to the NE and into the high-latitudes, this takes it up and out of SoCal’s swell window and forces most of the storm’s swell up towards Alaska. Also, I don’t care for the storm’s positioning, it is a ways away from the West Coast and a building ridge of high pressure isn’t going to let it get all that close. The extra-travel distance will let the swell decay quite a bit and while that helps to groom out the shape it chews up a lot of the wave heights too. But anyway…like I said, this isn’t set in stone yet, we could see the model improve the forecast quite a bit before the storm forms so keep your fingers crossed.
Here are the details for the West Coast…
Northern California
Look for fading but a still healthy mix of WNW energy (280-300) moving in on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Most breaks will have consistent shoulder-overhead surf while the standout NW facing breaks, mostly the NW facing beach breaks along the North Coast, will have some well-overhead surf. Weather looks a little funky with some periods of rain, but SE-E winds staying pretty steady so shape shouldn’t be too bad. New WNW swell (280-300) moves in by Wednesday midmorning and builds into Wednesday night, peaking over into Thursday morning. This swell looks good for nearly 14-16 feet of deepwater energy around the 14-16 second range…which means lots of exposed breaks going several-feet overhead to double-overhead+. Standout deepwater spots will see double-triple overhead faces with a few bigger waves feathering through at times. Look for this swell mix to back down slowly later this week, but except plenty of waves all the way up through next weekend.
Southern California
Look for dropping WNW windswell and a playful shot of WNW energy (280-300 but mostly 290-300) to hold through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Nothing huge but with some chest-shoulder high+ faces coming through at the better exposed winter breaks. New WNW energy (again 280-300 but a little more energy peaking 285-300) moves in later on Wednesday and will peak Thursday and Friday before fading out. Look for more chest-shoulder high+ surf at the better WNW spots and a few shoulder-overhead sized sets hitting at the top NW spots. Clean conditions and warming air temps will be on tap for most of the week…wouldn’t be surprised to see a little offshore flow setting up around Wednesday/Thursday as well.
Adam Wright
Forecaster
socalsurf.com
TAGS: Adam Wright surf forecaster, California surf predictions, SoCal Surf Report, West Coast Surf Forecast
